Armenia's GDP is projected to increase by 7.5% in 2024, according to the baseline scenario of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) macroeconomic forecast.
"Higher-than-expected economic growth rates are linked to strong business activity from January to April, driven by rapid growth in the processing and export of gold products. The impact of this factor on GDP dynamics is expected to diminish by the fourth quarter of this year," the report states.
The report indicates that the strengthening of domestic demand, supported by the expansion of consumer credit and investments, as well as low consumer prices, will be a key growth driver this year. "The impact of fiscal policy is assessed as stimulative. In 2025, economic growth is expected to return to balanced rates — 4.2% in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026," the report adds.
In 2024, a slight cooling of economic growth among Armenia's main trading partners is anticipated, which will constrain remittances and external demand for most export goods. However, export indicators will remain strong due to exceptionally high volumes of external trade in gold products.
"Under the baseline scenario, inflation is forecasted at 1.5% year-on-year by the end of 2024. The disinflationary influence of global prices on goods and raw materials, reduced inflation expectations, and the strengthening of the dram will limit price growth. However, the easing of monetary policy by the Central Bank of Armenia, stimulative fiscal policy, and strengthening domestic demand will be inflationary factors in 2024. In 2025–2026, inflation is expected to hover around the lower boundary of the Central Bank of Armenia's target range (4±1.5%)," the report concludes.
