The Armenian economy is projected to grow by 6.2% in 2024 and by 4.8% in 2025. Such a forecast is contained in the May report of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) on 'Regional Economic Prospects, May 2024.
The report also notes the positive results of the Armenian economy in 2023, which continued against the backdrop of global economic challenges.
"The economy continued to perform well in 2023. GDP increased by 8.7 per cent on the back of buoyant export demand and double-digit growth of construction, hospitality, and information and communication services. Net capital inflows in 2023 declined by almost 40 per cent compared with 2022 but remained substantially higher than in 2021", the report says.
The report notes that As the surplus in exports of services offset the deepening deficit in the trade of goods, the current account returned to a deficit of 2.1 per cent of GDP.
Public finances improved in 2023 due to prolonged, robust economic growth and improved management of public finances. This enabled a budget response to support refugees in the last quarter of 2023. Inflation mostly stayed close to zero during the year and enabled a cautious reduction in the policy rate by the central bank.
"A gradual slowdown of economic growth towards the estimated medium-term potential is under way, with GDP growth of 6.2 per cent expected in 2024, with a further moderation to 4.8 per cent in 2025. Elevated public expenditures aimed at easing the integration of refugees will support growth. Risks to economic outlook mostly arise from geopolitical uncertainty", the report says.
