The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has analyzed the reasons behind the sharp slowdown in Armenia’s economic activity in November 2024, pointing to the exhaustion of the boost from external trade and precious metals processing as key factors in the decline.
According to the EDB's latest macroeconomic review, economic activity in Armenia grew by 7.4% in the first eleven months of 2024. The primary drivers of this growth were trade, which increased by 18%; industry, which rose by 7.6%; and the services sector, which expanded by 6.3%.
However, in November, the bank’s analysts recorded a significant deceleration in growth to 1.2%, compared to 4.2% in October. The industrial sector was particularly affected, with output dropping by 19%, following a 5.2% increase in October.
Data from Armenia’s Statistical Committee revealed that the country’s foreign trade turnover from January to November reached $28.2 billion, a 54% year-on-year increase. Yet, November saw a sharp decline: a 27.4% decrease compared to the same month in 2023 and a 15.6% drop relative to October 2024.
EDB experts noted that while exports rose by 73.9% and imports by 41.5% over the January-November period, both indicators showed negative dynamics in November. Exports fell by 35%, and imports dropped by 22.8% year-on-year.
Amid weakening external trade activity, domestic demand continues to support the economy, the bank’s analysts highlighted. During the review period, exports amounted to $12.3 billion, while imports reached $15.9 billion.
Earlier reports from BMG indicated that Armenia’s economic activity grew by 7.4% in January-November 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. However, in November, growth slowed significantly to 1.2% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, the 2024 state budget forecasted economic growth at 7% and inflation at 4% (±1.5%). S&P projects Armenia’s economy will grow by 6.2% in 2024, while the UN expects growth of 5.2% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025.
