The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) predicts that the inflation rate in Armenia will reach 1.5% year-on-year by the end of this year, according to the EDB's macroeconomic review.
In July, inflation accelerated to 1.4%, compared to 0.8% in June, driven by an increase in food prices, which rose by 0.7% year-on-year for the first time in 14 months. Additionally, the growth rate of service prices accelerated in July, reaching 3.1% compared to 2.7% the previous month.
Despite this acceleration, inflation in Armenia remains below the target set by the Central Bank at 4% (±1.5%).
According to the Central Bank's forecast, inflation for 2024 is expected to be within the range of 0.9-1.3%, and in 2025 it is projected to be 3.8-3.2%. The forecast for 2026 is between 3.7-4%.
According to the latest estimates from leading international financial institutions, Armenia can expect a stable inflation level in the coming years.
The World Bank predicts a gradual increase in inflation: 3% in 2024, 3.5% in 2025, and 4% in 2026.
The International Monetary Fund also gives a positive outlook, expecting inflation in Armenia to reach 3.1% in 2024 with a slight increase to 3.7% in 2025.
The Asian Development Bank shares a similar view, forecasting inflation at 3% in 2024, with an acceleration to 3.5% in 2025. The ADB attributes this increase to the anticipated easing of monetary policy in the country.
