TBC Capital published Update From the Chief Economist. According to the report, as argued in the latest update on the Georgian macro, there are strong upsides to TBC Capital's earlier growth baseline. Indeed, besides material pick-up in exports, a detailed breakdown of the trade balance shows still elevated share of investment imports pointing to the momentum of not only in actual, but also the potential output. This positive development comes alongside a February growth figure presumably exceeding the expectations, considering high VAT turnovers and increased non-cash expenses.
Furthermore, just released February NBG net interventions data indicates now a sizable excess supply on the FX market.
"Following the good news on strong macro, including the lower risk premium after receiving the EU candidacy status, on Tuesday, Moody's improved Georgia's outlook to stable from negative. However, the great news came the same day in the evening, when the Georgian football team
qualified for the Euro 2024, - the most import achievement in this sport after Dinamo Tbilisi has won the European Cup Winners' Cup in 1981. We say this is also a growth-positive for the country as hospitality represents the largest industry. In this regard, we will be back soon with more detailed update to the macro baseline", - the document reads.
