July trade in goods, tourism, migration, and remittances show a slowdown when measured in USD terms. The detailed exports and imports data will be available later this week. We also note that tourism, including and excluding migration impact, represent our assessments based on TBC data as the NBG now only publishes quarterly estimates, reads Weekly Update from the Chief Economist of TBC Capital.
"Nevertheless, we draw two main conclusions. First, July net inflows, after adjusting for imports, are even stronger, though, based on the updated daily deposits’ currency composition, the shifts in sentiments are evidently impacting the GEL. Second, looks like the July growth print will be lower than what our latest stronger than 7.2% baseline would imply. Here we also note that the share of migration is lower – we say net positive for the growth sustainability going forward.
On the labor market side, last week data release shows a continuation of a strong trend. While not affecting an overall assessment, we still note that we do not have precise estimates on the contribution of the migrants with already having a resident status," the report says.
