Galt & Taggart forecasts a decline in Georgian Railway’s revenue in 2025, according to the investment bank’s newly published review, which analyzes the company’s financial performance for the first nine months of the year. The report highlights weakening freight turnover and notes several factors contributing to the downward trend.
In the first nine months of 2025, Georgian Railway’s freight transportation volumes fell by 7.3%. Total cargo shipments amounted to 9.8 million tons, a 4.9% year-on-year decrease. According to the review, this decline was mainly driven by reduced transit flows from Kazakhstan as well as lower domestic freight activity, both of which significantly impacted overall cargo movement.
Alongside the drop in freight turnover, the company’s freight transportation revenue decreased by 7.3% compared to the previous year, reaching 164.9 million USD. This decline was largely due to reduced revenue from logistics services, particularly in the transportation of sulfur, fuel oil and gasoil. Passenger transportation revenues also remained weak. Adjusted EBITDA saw a sharp drop of 31.2%, falling to 43.2 million USD. While revenue decreased by 7.3%, operating expenses increased by 1.1%, driven mostly by higher salary costs. The combination of falling revenues and rising expenses worsened operational profitability, pushing the EBITDA margin down from 35.3% in the first nine months of 2024 to 26.2% in the same period of 2025.
Based on its projections, Galt & Taggart expects Georgian Railway’s full-year revenue for 2025 to amount to 222.8 million USD - a 6.5% decline compared to the previous year. According to the assessment, ongoing weaknesses in freight demand and cost pressures will continue to weigh on the company’s financial performance.
