According to Galt & Taggart’s report “Iran Escalation: 50 Days – Assessing Georgia’s Resilience,” global oil prices have eased from their early-April peaks but remain elevated and highly volatile. Brent crude is currently trading in the $90–100 per barrel range, significantly below the $120 peak seen earlier, but still around $20–30 higher than pre-war levels.
The report notes that the main factor influencing prices is the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route. According to the investment bank, a potential agreement to reopen or stabilize the strait would likely push prices lower, while continued disruptions would keep them elevated and unpredictable.
Galt & Taggart warns that higher oil prices are already feeding through into Georgia’s domestic economy, increasing inflationary pressure. Before the escalation, the bank expected average inflation of around 3.0% in 2026, but now forecasts it at 4.2%, citing rising global energy costs and the recent electricity tariff increase in Georgia from April 1.
As a result, inflation is expected to remain above the National Bank of Georgia’s target level, though still contained, before easing back toward 3.0% in 2027. The report also says this shift effectively rules out interest rate cuts in 2026, with the NBG now expected to keep its 8.0% policy rate unchanged throughout the year, with possible easing only in 2027 if inflation declines as projected.
