The Georgian Government predicts that Georgia's GDP will reach GEL 65.6 billion in 2022. The government deeply believes that despite the current crisis, real economic growth will reach at least 6% this year.
The 2022 budget also provides 6% economic growth. According to it, the projected GDP size was planned at 64.8 billion GEL. As of the new forecast, the total size of GDP is GEL 0.8 billion higher compared to the previously predicted one.
"In the baseline scenario, the growth forecast for 2022 is estimated at 6.0%, while it is expected to average 5.2% in the medium term. Under such a scenario, in the medium term the economy will be able to recover about ¾ of its lost economic growth," - the government report said.
The World Bank shares similar expectations for economic recovery. A few days ago, Sebastian Molineus, Regional Director for the South Caucasus of the World Bank told BMG that Georgia's economic growth forecast for 2022 would be raised to 5.5%. Shortly after the start of the war in Ukraine, the World Bank cut its forecast to 2.5%, although the World Bank estimates that a 5.5% increase is realistic.
The Georgian government estimates that GDP per capita will increase from USD 5,015 to USD 6,284 in 2021, an increase of 20%. Strengthening of GEL exchange rate must also result in economic growth.
As of the updated forecast, the volume of state debt is reduced to 45% of GDP, which is 5 percentage points lower compared to the previous forecast for 2022.
