Galt & Taggart has revised Georgia’s 2026 inflation forecast upward from 3% to 4.2%. According to the investment bank’s economist, Lasha Kavtaradze, the recent increase in electricity tariffs alone will contribute 0.7 percentage points to inflation starting in April.
Kavtaradze told TV-program Business Morning that the updated forecast reflects not only rising global oil prices, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions, but also the impact of higher electricity costs. He noted that the electricity-tariff effect is likely to be one-off, meaning the National Bank may choose not to tighten monetary policy, though indirect pressures on small businesses remain a risk.
Galt & Taggart’s baseline scenario assumes that regional tensions around Iran will ease within 2–3 months, after which oil prices will begin to decline, but still remain around $80 per barrel by year-end, above pre-war levels.
However, if oil prices stay above $100, actual inflation could exceed the 4.2% forecast, potentially prompting monetary tightening from the National Bank.
The updated outlook follows GNERC’s March 30 decision to raise electricity tariffs by 5 tetri for households and 4–6 tetri for businesses nationwide.
