The National Bank of Georgia reports, that until the end of 2023, inflation will remain below the target rate. According to the NBG's current base macroeconomic forecast, inflation in 2023 will be within 2.4% on average. In 2024, largely due to the base effect of the current year, it will temporarily exceed the target level and then stabilize around it.
The National Bank does not rule out that the inflationary pressure will increase again amid the increase in international prices due to the high volatility characteristic of the global commodity markets. In this regard, the trend of increasing oil prices on international energy exchanges is noteworthy.
This is one of the factors why investment bank G&T increased the inflation forecast for the current year. Economist at Galt&Taggart explains that inflation will affect the transport sector by 0.3%
"Regarding the forecasts for the coming year, we have revised upward the forecast for average annual inflation in 2024 and increased it from 3.1% to 3.5%, which is higher than the target, although not too far. In 1H24, it will be close to the target of 3% and in the second half of the year, it will be higher than 4%.
In December 2024, we expect inflation to reach 4.4%, this is mainly explained by the low base, and here we also assume that the prices of oil products on the international markets will remain high", explains Lasha Kavtaradze.
