Ongoing military escalation in Iran could significantly reshape the balance of transport routes across the region, strengthening the strategic position of the Middle Corridor and Georgia’s role within it. According to Paata Tsagareishvili, head of the Center for Transport Corridor Research, the current uncertainty may open new opportunities for Georgia to attract additional cargo flows and reinforce its position as a regional logistics hub.
Tsagareishvili noted on TV-program Business Morning that while cargo transit through Georgia grew by around 50% in 2022, the country failed to sustain this momentum in 2023–2025. At the same time, Central Asian states actively expanded transport cooperation with Iran—developing joint tariff policies, creating new economic zones on the Turkmenistan–Iran border, and modernizing infrastructure. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, China, and others have all strengthened transit routes via Iran, aiming for access to southern ports. If instability in Iran continues, these plans may be disrupted, shifting more freight toward the Middle Corridor, particularly industrial cargo from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
He also emphasized Iran’s long-standing strategic interest in accessing Black Sea ports through Georgia - a route used in the past to ship crude oil to Batumi. Renewed instability could revive this transit direction. At the same time, Russia’s North–South Corridor project, a $1.6 billion investment to build a 180-km railway inside Iran, now faces uncertainty, creating additional competitive space for the Middle Corridor.
To capitalize on these developments, Tsagareishvili stressed that Georgia must urgently strengthen its infrastructure and attract more investment. In 2025, foreign direct investment in transport and logistics amounted to only USD 165 million, a decline he considers concerning. Modernizing railway rolling stock, upgrading locomotives, and expanding port infrastructure are essential steps if Georgia is to handle increased freight volumes during this shifting regional landscape.
