The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) does not rule out maintaining its refinancing rate at an elevated level in the coming years, according to its monetary and foreign exchange policy guidelines for 2027–2029, submitted to Parliament. NBG President Natia Turnava is scheduled to present the document to the Finance and Budget Committee.
The central bank forecasts average inflation of 5.2% in 2026, above its 3% target, before easing to 2.7% in 2027 and stabilizing around the target in the medium term. It attributes this year's inflationary pressure mainly to external factors, particularly rising energy prices amid the conflict in the Middle East. In response, the NBG raised its refinancing rate by 0.25 percentage points to 8.25% in May 2026 and has kept it unchanged since.
The document does not specify when rate cuts could begin. The NBG says future monetary policy decisions will depend on updated macroeconomic forecasts and risk assessments. It identifies geopolitical developments, global energy and food prices, transportation costs and monetary policies of major central banks as key uncertainties. If inflationary risks intensify, the regulator may tighten monetary policy further, while easing price pressures could allow for a more accommodative approach.
The report also highlights progress in reducing dollarization. As of August 2026, 58.8% of total loans and 56.8% of deposits were denominated in Georgian lari. The NBG says reducing dollarization remains essential for monetary policy effectiveness and financial stability, although it continues to be one of the country's key financial challenges.
