TBC Group Senior Economist Nikoloz Zurabishvili says the National Bank of Georgia may raise the refinancing rate by 0.25 percentage points if inflationary pressures continue to accelerate in November and December. He noted that TBC Capital’s average annual inflation forecast of 5.4% is broadly in line with the central bank’s revised forecast of 5.4%.
Zurabishvili identified rising global fuel and food prices, along with higher service costs, as key inflation drivers. He said a reduction in higher education tuition fees is expected to temporarily lower year-end inflation by 0.8 percentage points, but this one-off effect does not reflect the underlying inflation trend. Excluding temporary factors, underlying inflation is estimated at 5–5.5%.
The economist highlighted service inflation as a particular concern because it responds more slowly to monetary policy changes. In September, service inflation reached 3.7%, but would have been approximately 6.6% without the effect of lower university tuition fees. If this trend persists, inflation could remain elevated for longer, increasing the likelihood of monetary policy tightening.
The National Bank kept its refinancing rate unchanged at 8.25% at its latest meeting. Its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for December 16, 2026, when policymakers may consider raising the rate if inflationary pressures continue to intensify.
