TBC Group Senior Economist Nikoloz Zurabishvili expects the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) to continue accumulating foreign exchange reserves next year under the baseline scenario. Speaking on the TV program Analitics, he said that despite reserves reaching a record high in nominal terms, further accumulation remains advisable given relative adequacy indicators and credit rating considerations.
Zurabishvili stressed that reserve accumulation is important amid growing geopolitical risks and the need for economic buffers. According to the International Monetary Fund’s reserve adequacy measure, Georgia’s coverage currently stands at around 129%, below the 145–150% level recommended for the country, reflecting its specific economic characteristics.
He also noted that S&P’s decision this summer to upgrade Georgia’s credit rating outlook from stable to positive identified reserve accumulation as a favorable factor. Continued growth in reserves could therefore support future sovereign rating improvements. However, if inflationary pressures intensify, the NBG may prioritize further lari appreciation to curb imported inflation, potentially slowing the pace of reserve accumulation. This is not TBC Capital’s baseline scenario, which anticipates continued reserve growth next year.
Georgia’s international reserves reached $8.17 billion at the end of September 2026, an increase of $26 million compared with the previous month.
