Analysts expect that the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) could ease monetary policy in the second half of 2026. The refinancing rate is currently set at 8%, following the NBG’s December 17 decision to leave it unchanged.
According to Lasha Kavtaradze, economist at Galt & Taggart, average annual inflation is expected to slow to 3% next year. This will allow the NBG to reduce the refinancing rate by about 0.5 percentage points, to 7.5%, most likely in the second half of 2026.
“Inflation accelerated earlier this year, peaking in October, but November showed a slowdown to 4.8%. We forecast that this trend will continue, especially in food and healthcare prices, which will ease imported inflation,” Kavtaradze explained.
She added that the first quarter of 2026 will likely maintain the 8% rate, with a gradual reduction later as inflation approaches the target. This easing would provide the NBG an opportunity to adjust monetary policy in line with the slower inflation trend.
