Aleksandre Dzneladze, president of the Banking Association of Georgia, does not expect the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) to cut its refinancing rate in the near term, suggesting the central bank may keep it at 8.25%. He made the remarks in response to a question from BMG journalists.
Dzneladze said the inflation outlook for next year is relatively reassuring, with the NBG forecasting inflation at around 3.1%, close to its target. While it remains difficult to predict whether the policy rate will rise, he expects the central bank to maintain its current tight monetary policy rather than reduce the rate.
He also expects lending activity to strengthen further toward the end of the year, noting that credit portfolio growth remains high and activity typically picks up after the summer. However, he said it is too early to determine how next year’s tighter borrower affordability rules will affect lending, whether by slowing activity across the market or making it harder for certain individuals to obtain loans in their desired amounts.
From 2027, Georgia will gradually tighten its payment-to-income (PTI) requirements, which limit the share of a borrower’s monthly income that can go toward loan repayments. From February 1, 2027, the 25% PTI requirement will apply to borrowers earning up to GEL 2,000 per month. From September 1, 2027, the income threshold will rise to GEL 2,500.
