Serbia's National Bank says that country's record level of foreign direct investment (FDI) followed a brief slowdown resulting from the war in Ukraine followed by a rebound that surpassed central bankers' projections.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic this week hailed the "incredible success in a year of war in Ukraine."
The conflict has strained relations between Brussels and Belgrade by highlighting Vucic's cozy ties with Moscow, underscored by his refusal to adopt sanctions and no-fly measures to punish Russia's unprovoked invasion of its post-Soviet neighbor.
Some analysts and data on new businesses suggest the Serbian investment boom has been fueled by Russian and Ukrainian nationals fleeing those countries and an exponential rise in Russian-owned business ventures in Serbia.
Investments in Serbia by foreign firms and individuals last year exceeded 4 billion euros ($4.3 billion), approaching pre-pandemic levels.
The National Bank of Serbia responded to a question from RFE/RL by saying the FDI surge followed a slowdown in March and April due to the Ukraine conflict.
But, the bank said, "the rest of the year...not only compensated but even exceeded the initial projections made before the conflict in Ukraine."
The National Bank cited macroeconomic stability, a favorable business climate, and Serbia's agreements on free trade with other countries as the main reasons for the record level of investments.
Serbian exports in 2021 were significant to Russia and China on a bilateral basis, but combined exports to all EU members was exponentially higher, topped by Germany and Italy.
Serbia, an EU candidate, has rebuffed pressure to join EU-wide sanctions including a ban on direct flights to and from Russian airports.
Ljubodrag Savic, an economics professor in Belgrade, thinks the Serbian FDI recovery has been fueled by the arrival of Russians and Ukrainians escaping the effects of war.
The Serbian Agency for Business Registers told RFE/RL that 1,020 Russian-owned companies were founded in Serbia in 2022 -- more than 12 times the figure of the previous year, when 82 such companies were founded.
"About 500 million-600 million euros more than the average of previous years for the circumstances of Serbia is unusual and somewhat unexpected," Savic said. "Probably some reason lies in the fact that we now had a significant influx of Russians and Ukrainians."
Serbia and Turkey are the only EU candidate states that have not imposed sanctions on Russia over the war.
Vucic has continued to rely on Moscow for diplomatic support in its spat over recognition of former province Kosovo, as well as for investment in the gas industry and some defense procurements, RFE/RL reports.
