The Central Bank of Armenia anticipates that the country's economic growth in 2024 will range between 6.1% and 6.8%. This forecast is included in the Monetary Policy Report for the second quarter of this year, according to the ARKA news agency.
As previously reported by the Chairman of the Central Bank Martin Galstyan, the regulator has implemented a new second-generation Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS Mark II) starting from 2024. The Central Bank's forecasts are based on two scenarios: in the first scenario (A), the regulator's inflation forecasts are higher than market participants' expectations, while in the second scenario (B), they are lower.
According to scenario A, Armenia's GDP growth in 2024 is projected to be 6.8%, and 6.1% under scenario B. The forecast for 2025 is 6.1% and 3.8%, and for 2026, it is 5.5% and 4.1%.
This year, industrial growth is expected to be 8.3% under scenario A and 7.5% under scenario B, agricultural growth is forecasted at 3.3% and 2.8%, construction growth at 12.7% for both scenarios, services growth at 6.5% and 5.8%, and net taxes at 4.7% and 4.2%.
Scenario A suggests an inflation rate in Armenia of 0.9% by the end of this year, while scenario B indicates 1.3%. The inflation forecast for 2025 is 4.6%-4.1%, and for 2026, it is 4.7%-4.1%.
The state budget for Armenia in 2024 projects an economic growth of 7%, with inflation set at 4% (±1.5%).
