The European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation (Eurocontrol) suggested that the airspace of Ukraine, which was closed on February 24, 2022 due to Russian military aggression, will not be opened until 2029.
As reported in the text of the forecast for 2023-2029, which was published on the Eurocontrol website, restrictions will remain in the airspace of Russia, Belarus and Moldova until that time.
"We currently assume that the Ukrainian and Russian airspaces remain closed till the end of the horizon (2029)," according to the Additional Risks section.
In addition, restrictions in the airspace of Belarus and Moldova will remain until 2029.
As risks, Eurocontrol indicates terrorist attacks, flight bans between countries, wars and natural disasters that cannot be foreseen, but which may have a temporary or lasting effect on traffic in the airspace, as well as flight cancellations due to strikes, lack of staff at airports and airlines.
Rising inflation and uncertainties triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine are seen as key risks. Extending the conflict over time, which could exacerbate disruptions in energy markets, would be an even bigger blow to global economic expansion, according to the text of the forecast.
As risks for the aviation industry, Eurocontrol refers to the uncertainty regarding oil prices and the lack of available refining capacity.
The organization predicts, after a drop in the number of flights operated by 44 members of the organization in 2020 and 2021 in Europe to 5 million and 6.2 million according to the base scenario, an increase to 10.3 million flights in 2023 and 11.8 million in 2029.
Since 2019, low-cost companies have strengthened their position, reaching a market share of 32.3% in 2022, which is only slightly less than that of mainline carriers of 32.4%. Air cargo transportation (all-cargo), after a slight increase, returned to COVID-19 indicators and in 2022 occupied only 4.2% of the market. The segment is greatly affected by Russia's full-scale aggression in Ukraine. At the same time, business aviation is growing, which since the end of April has reached the level of 2021 (11.4%), Interfax-Ukraine reports.
