The World Bank has released its January report, Global Economic Prospects, forecasting Armenia's economic growth at 5% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026. These figures are 0.1 percentage points higher than the June 2023 forecast. The projection for 2024 remains unchanged at 5.5%.
These estimates contrast with the more optimistic projections of Armenian authorities. The state budget for 2024 assumes 7% growth, with 5.1% forecasted for 2025. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Armenia, in its latest monetary policy report, predicts GDP growth of 6% in 2024 and a range of 4.8% to 7.1% in 2025.
Against the backdrop of global economic trends, Armenia's forecasts appear relatively favorable. The World Bank projects global economic growth at 2.7% annually for 2025-2026, below the pre-pandemic decade average of 3.1%.
The report pays special attention to the Europe and Central Asia region, where growth is expected to slow to 3.2% in 2024. Experts attribute this to weakening economic performance in Russia and Turkey, driven by tighter monetary policies and high inflation. Additionally, the bank warns that a slowdown in Russia’s economy could significantly impact South Caucasus countries, particularly through reduced remittances.
Overall, the World Bank notes that the global economy is entering a period of stabilization, supported by inflation returning to target levels and a loosening of monetary policies in both developed and developing countries.
