The investment bank Galt & Taggart predicts inflation to decrease to 9.2% late in 2022, - the head of the bank's research department, Eva Bochorishvili told TV-program Business Morning.
According to Eva Bochorishvili, currently, external factors are affecting the inflation decrease, including oil prices, shipping costs and food price index, which have a decreasing trend. According to the expectations of Galt & Taggart, from 2023 the level of inflation will decrease to 5% on average, and by the end of 2023, it will be closer to the NBG's target level - 3%.
"We expect inflation to decrease. We should note that our August inflation expectation was 10.5%, but the actual was 10.9%. It means that the reduction takes place more slowly than we expect. However, there is still a decline and we expect a decrease to 9.2% at the end of the year, which is still quite a large figure. Next year, according to our forecast, the average inflation will be within 5%, and by the end of the year, we think that it will approach the National Bank's target rate of 3%. There are risks, but with the existing trends including reduction of fuel prices, logistics costs and FAO food index, inflation will reduce," said Eva Bochorishvili.
The National Bank itself expects an inflation decline. However, at the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee held on September 14, the National Bank decided to maintain the refinancing rate at 11%.
