The current analysis by the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH) shows that the number of insolvencies of partnerships and corporations in September was 34% higher than in the previous year. A further increase in the number of insolvencies is to be expected for the autumn.
According to the IWH insolvency trend, the number of insolvencies of partnerships and corporations in Germany was 762 in September. That is 34% more than in September 2021 and also more than last expected.
Just a month ago, IWH's bankruptcy forecast for September had predicted a 25% year-on-year increase. For October, the leading indicators of the IWH also indicate significantly higher insolvency figures, which will be around a third higher than in October 2021. In November, the previous year's values could even be exceeded by 40%. Despite the rapidly rising numbers, only an increase of between 12% and 14% can be expected for the year as a whole, since the insolvency figures in the first half of the year were still slightly below the previous year's level.
The analysis by the IWH shows that 6,600 jobs were affected in the largest 10% of companies whose bankruptcy was reported in September. The number of employees affected is thus slightly above the level of the last twelve months.
"The number of insolvencies will continue to rise noticeably in the coming months," says Steffen Müller, head of the IWH department for structural change and productivity and the insolvency research based there. In addition to the severely deteriorating economic situation, this is primarily due to sharply rising prices for important production factors. In addition to energy costs, wages and interest on loans are also rising. "After a long period of very low insolvency figures, they are expected to return to the pre-coronavirus level in November 2022," explains Müller.
