The indicators of Armenia's state budget for the first quarter of 2024 reflect an increase in revenue by 38.1 billion drams (approximately $100 million). However, the execution of the state revenue plan reached 93.2%, with tax revenues and state duties falling below - 92%.
Economist Aykaz Fanyan, head of the ACSES analytical center, calls these figures a "yellow flag," indicating the need to find new sources of tax revenue growth and more optimal methods of taxation.
He believes that the most realistic step would be to increase the tax burden on the precious metals sector, which is developing at an extensive pace.
Fanyan notes that actions are already being taken in this direction. Comparing the volumes of VAT collection for the first quarters of 2023 and 2024, he points to a reduction in VAT from imports by 26.6 billion drams (about $68 million), which may be associated with a decrease in the pace of automobile re-export business.
Additionally, he highlights that during this period, the Armenian dram depreciated by 2.3%, which theoretically should have contributed to the growth of the tax base.
In January-March 2024, state budget revenues amounted to 525 billion drams (over $1.3 billion), compared to the revised 563.1 billion drams (over $1.4 billion) and the actual figures for the same period in 2023 of 483.6 billion drams (over $1.2 billion). The level of execution relative to the adjusted plan was 93.2%.
Compared to the same period last year, expenses increased by 24.4% or 103.2 billion drams (over $264 million).
