The surge in economic activity in Armenia is driven by an external factor - primarily the growth of the jewelry industry, which poses risks. This was warned by the "Luys" Foundation, analyzing data published by the Statistical Committee of Armenia on the socio-economic situation in the country for January-February 2024.
In February 2024, economic activity sharply accelerated, but this is attributed to a short-term factor, say experts from the "Luys" Foundation, noting that the economic activity index reached 16.3%, mainly due to growth in the jewelry sector. "Such dependence on external factors, which are unpredictable, may lead to a complete halt in activity," the statement said.
At the same time, experts point out that stable and long-term directions in manufacturing are declining, while short-term economic activities demonstrate significant growth, which worsens the industry's overall structure. "In particular, in January 2024, a decline was observed in the subsectors of food products, tobacco, clothing, chemicals, and chemical production," the statement said.
Overall, the report positively evaluates the growth in exports, as it significantly increases the inflow of foreign currency into the national economy. However, attention is drawn to comparable import volumes, which overall neutralize this positive effect.
"Against the backdrop of high growth rates, difficulties arise in that existing export-related issues are pushed into the background. In particular, there is a decline in exports in several commodity categories. In January, a significant reduction in exports was noted, especially in the categories of 'prepared food products' and 'animals and animal products.' There is also problematic reduction in exports of raw materials," the report said.
Earlier, BMG reported that in Armenia, for January-February 2024, economic activity increased by 13.6% compared to the same period last year. Only in February did this indicator increase by another 16.3%.
