Galt & Taggart has raised its forecast for Georgia’s average annual inflation in 2026 from 5.1% to 5.3%, citing expectations that oil prices will remain elevated.
In a new report, the investment bank analyzed the factors affecting inflation. It said the acceleration in annual inflation in August reflected higher imported inflation, which rose to 5.7% year-on-year from 5.3% in July, as well as mixed-goods inflation, which increased to 5.3% from 4.4%. In contrast, domestic inflation eased to 5.9% in August from 6.4% a month earlier.
“Given the continued high global oil prices, we have raised our 2026 average annual inflation forecast to 5.3%,” Galt & Taggart said.
The investment bank also said a 25-basis-point increase in Georgia’s monetary policy rate cannot be ruled out in 2026, given tight global financial conditions and the need to maintain the interest-rate differential. If implemented, the refinancing rate would rise to 8.5%.
