The analytical center ACSES has conducted a study on the potential for developing trade relations among Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. Despite the currently low trade compatibility index between these countries, the experts identified significant opportunities for boosting mutual trade.
According to the study, by focusing on the most promising product categories, the total volume of intra-regional trade could increase by $2–2.4 billion. Azerbaijan shows the highest potential for export growth: up to $745 million to Georgia and up to $971 million to Armenia. Armenia, in turn, could expand its exports to Georgia by $250–313 million and to Azerbaijan by $151–188 million. The potential growth of Georgian exports is estimated at $82–103 million to Armenia and $151–188 million to Azerbaijan.
ACSES Chairman Haykaz Fanyan, speaking to BMG, emphasized that developing economic ties could serve as an effective tool for reducing regional tensions, regardless of whether a peace treaty is signed. As a concrete example of potential cooperation, he highlighted the possibility of replacing Russian aluminum with Azerbaijani raw materials for Armenia’s foil production.
"Until recently, the ‘Rusal Armenal’ plant in Armenia imported aluminum from Russia, produced foil, and exported it to the U.S., generating over $30 million annually under the GSP+ preferential trade program. However, after the suspension of the GSP program and the U.S. imposition of a 200% tariff on products made from Russian aluminum, this export channel was completely shut down," Fanyan explained.
He added that Azerbaijan, with its own aluminum reserves, could supply raw materials to Armenia via Georgia's railway network for subsequent foil production and export to the U.S. and other markets. However, Fanyan noted that implementing such projects between Armenia and Azerbaijan would only be possible with the agreement of both governments.
