TBC Capital expects the Georgian lari to remain at around GEL 2.60–2.65 per dollar by the end of 2026, maintaining its previous forecast. However, the investment bank says current economic trends increasingly point to a stronger lari scenario.
Growing net foreign currency inflows are supporting the lari, while Georgia’s trade deficit narrowed to 26.4% of GDP in the first seven months, from 30.1% in 2025. TBC Capital also expects the National Bank of Georgia to continue purchasing foreign currency, with reserves reaching 118.7% of the IMF’s ARA metric at the end of July, the highest level since 2011.
At the same time, renewed tensions in the Middle East and higher oil prices pose risks, mainly through inflation. Brent crude reached $97 per barrel on September 3, while Georgia’s economy grew 8% year-on-year in July, bringing average growth for January–July to 7.9%. August cashless spending also accelerated, particularly among non-residents.
TBC Capital expects annual inflation to reach 6% by December, after rising to 5.6% in August, and forecasts the NBG to keep its policy rate at 8.25% on September 9. However, the bank says arguments for tightening monetary policy have strengthened and does not rule out a rate increase to 8.5% if global inflationary pressures intensify.
