Galt & Taggart economist Lasha Kavtaradze links the IMF's downgrade of its global economic growth forecast to the tariff policy of the new US administration and the corresponding countermeasures.
The fact is that the IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast to 2.8%, while previously it was forecasting 3.3%.
As Lasha Kavtaradze told the TV program "Business Morning," given that Georgia's exports to the US are not big, the new tariff policy will have less impact on Georgia. This is precisely why the IMF left the 6% growth forecast for Georgia unchanged.
"[Maintaining the forecast] means that the direct impact of the tariff policy is minimal because our exports to the US are very small, we had exports of about $140 million last year. The major exports commodity is ferroalloys, to which the tariff policy might not be applied; if it does, the exporting market is diversified. For example, this year, ferroalloys did not enter the US at all, they went to Turkey and the EU countries," says Lasha Kavtaradze, adding that the final tariff rates, which will be after the 90-day pause, are important in terms of impact on global economic growth.
According to the latest IMF forecast, the Georgian economy will grow by 6% in 2025, and the GDP growth rate in 2026 will be 5%. The IMF has the following expectations for the countries of the region:
Turkey: +2.7%
Azerbaijan: +3.5%
Armenia: +4.5%
Russia: +1.5%
