Investment bank Galt & Taggart expects that the National Bank of Georgia will maintain the monetary policy rate unchanged at 8% for 2025. Lasha Kavtaradze, an economist at the bank, shared the forecast on the TV program Business Morning.
According to Kavtaradze, the average annual inflation is projected to reach 3.7%, slightly above the National Bank’s target. This is the main reason the central bank is expected to leave the refinancing rate unchanged this year.
“In August, the consumer price index rose by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, and annual inflation stood at 4.6%. The main contributors were food and non-alcoholic beverages, which increased by about 10%, followed by healthcare, education, and tobacco,” Kavtaradze explained. “Some categories, such as transport, clothing and footwear, and home care, showed annual decreases despite monthly increases.”
Looking ahead, Kavtaradze said inflation could fall below the target in 2026. “Against this backdrop, we expect the National Bank to consider a 0.25 to 0.5 percentage point reduction in the monetary policy rate in the second half of next year,” he added.
The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled for September 10, where the refinancing rate decision will be formally announced.
