The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has raised its economic growth forecast for Georgia, projecting real GDP growth of 6.5% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027. Both forecasts are 0.5 percentage points higher than the bank’s June estimates.
According to the EBRD, Georgia’s economy grew by an estimated 7.9% in the first half of 2026, slowing from 9% in the first quarter to 7% in the second. Growth was broad-based, with information and communication services, manufacturing, transport and storage, and financial and insurance activities making significant contributions. Tourism revenues, meanwhile, declined 2% year-on-year, while goods exports rose by around 20%, compared with 2.3% growth in imports.
The EBRD said annual inflation stood at 5.6% in August, above the National Bank of Georgia’s 3% target, with higher energy prices contributing to inflationary pressures. At the same time, Georgia’s current account deficit narrowed to 1.9% of GDP in the four quarters through the first quarter of 2026, from 6% a year earlier, supported by stronger information and communication services and an improved goods trade balance.
International reserves reached a record $8.1 billion at the end of August, equivalent to 128.2% of the IMF’s reserve adequacy metric, according to the EBRD. The bank also identified major investment projects in real estate, connectivity and renewable energy as additional growth opportunities, while citing tensions with the EU and the potential impact of the Middle East conflict on tourism revenues and energy costs as risks to the outlook.
